At some point in your life, you'll be listening to an 'Oldies' station, and you'll hear a song from your youth. This can be a depressing or comforting feeling, depending on your philosophical outlook on life. It first happened to me about a year ago when I heard New Order's Blue Monday on the radio while driving to work. I was shocked to find something so avant-garde for its time relegated to the retro bin of 60's, 70's and 80's hits. Upon further reflection though, I was pleased, as New Order had managed to remain relevant 20 years after the song's release. In many ways we've been blessed in the last couple of decades by quality music acts that have managed to survive well beyond the average band's 'life' expectancy. Think of U2 for example, which have been releasing massively successful albums and tours for over 20 years. There are lots of acts like this out there, such as Elton John, Paul McCartney, or the absolute kings of survival, the Rolling Stones. What I wonder about though, is what artists from the contemporary music scene will have this kind of staying power? Who is popular right now that will still be around in 20 years?
To answer this question, I think a good start is to look at what the bands that have been able to persist for so long in the past have had in common. First, the main key seems to be a quality songbook. Paul McCartney, the Rolling Stones, Madonna, Billy Joel, and Elton John never need to write a new song again to continue to pack stadiums full of devoted listeners as they have well developed repertoires of songs that people of all generations seem to like. On this score, I like Norah Jones, Beck, and Green Day. All three of these performers write catchy and memorable tunes that have in their own ways a strong anthem-like quality. On the other hand, I worry about a Gwen Stefani, Britney Spears, or Kelly Clarkson, who, while all producing tremendous hits seem to depend more upon production values that true fundamental songwriting strength.
Second, it's important to be revolutionary is some way, and have contributed something new (or at least something that feels new) to the field of music. Even though they both drew upon musical influences that came before them, and are in many ways rooted in musical traditions such as the blues, both the Beatles and the Rolling Stones appear timeless because their sound seemed to define the rules of rock n roll for decades to come. In this area, I would point to genre-crossing acts like Nine Inch Nails, Outkast, and the Black Eyed Peas, who all have pushed the stylistic boundaries in what they do. Electronic musicians such as the Chemical Brothers, Squarepusher, Amon Tobin, and Aphex Twin may do well in this regard as well, as they've helped define a whole new set of sounds and techniques for making music. Bands like Coldplay, Joss Stone, Belle and Sebastian, and Matisyahu will probably not do well in this area as they are all quite referential to and reminiscent of earlier sounds in musical history despite their new inflections of these forms.
A third component to long term success seems to be to key into some important cultural phenomenon, so that in the minds of your fans you always represent an important time in their lives. In this area, newer acts are at a disadvantage it seems because as a culture we are more subdivided into smaller cultural groups than ever before. The grand unifying cultural movements of the 1960's and 70's are much harder to replicate in a world with 20 plus different sub-variations of dance music. Also, technologies such as satellite and internet radio make it much easier to hear just the music you like, so people are less swayed by the homogenizing power of traditional radio. My bet would be that songs and acts that are tied to big movies will do well, as huge releases can still serve as points of cultural commonality.
Last but not least, a fourth key seems to be continuing to be able to do what you do as well as you did when you were initially popular. Acts that depend heavily on their dancing skills and good looks may find themselves in trouble once the wrinkles appear and the knees start getting weaker. Of course, there is always plastic surgery, but in an age with increasingly high definition televisions, it's going to be harder and harder to hide the effects of time, and only bands with true talent are going to be able to make you ignore their bodies and focus on the music they are making.
Who do you think will still be a star 20 to 30 years from now? Let me know.
